It’s a tight battle for the win this weekend at China – Bookies are torn between Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel for the win, with odds of both drivers looking extremely likely to win.
Bookies, however, aren’t F1 fanatics, and don’t really take the deeper insights into account. We’ve done the research, and here’s why we know who you need to put your money on for this weekend.
China is colder than Bahrain
Toto Wolff was quoted after the Bahrain Grand Prix that the Mercedes does not react well to high temperatures, which could point to why the Mercedes was not topping the timesheets this past weekend despite their clear engine and chassis advantages.
With cooler temperatures in China, with Sunday especially looking to be quite cold at just 18 degrees, Mercedes (and Hamilton) look set to be back on top, and this is reason number one why you should put your money on the #44 Mercedes.
China has more high speed corners
Bahrain has now been won twice in a row by Ferrari, who have built a car that’s famously stronger than Mercedes in slow to medium-speed corners. The Mercedes of last year was clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the field on high speed circuits like Silverstone and Monza, and China is a circuit that shares some similar characteristics to its British and Italian cousins – especially in sector two, and with turn one being very high speed upon entry.
Hamilton is angry
Lewis has endured a pretty disappointing start to the year – anything other than wins just won’t cut it for the World Champion. In the past where he has gone through disappointment, he’s always come back twice as strong to dominate the following race. And with 5 wins in China, Lewis is no stranger to the Shanghai Circuit. Expect a bloodbath in Q3!
Vettel has won only once in China
With 49 wins in his career, this works out to an average of around 2.5 wins per circuit for the feisty German, and with only one win in Shanghai, this appears to be a major outlier in his career statistics – especially as he never won in China during his world championship-winning years.
Mercedes has taken pole in China every year since 2012
Bit of a useless statistic, yes, but this does imply that Mercedes have familiarized themselves very well with the Chinese circuit and its associated conditions. They have only managed to lose one race there since 2012 too.
It is thus easy to see why Mercedes (and especially Hamilton) are seen as favourites for Sunday – what are your thoughts?
Place your bets here!